Mychal Ferreira, Mortgage Specialist from BMO, joins us today on this special podcast where we discuss the impacts of the new 0.75% rate hike. With average mortgages in Vancouver being substantially higher than the rest of the country, Vancouverites can expect their variable rate mortgage payments to increase by another $350-$700 dollars per month – s staggering $4,000 to $8,000 increase in payments each year. Will this be enough pressure to force Sellers to reduce the prices of their homes on the market? Will it be enough pressure to erode disposable income so the economy slows down? Perhaps to some degree, but with recent GDP data showing the economy still running strong and over 1 million job vacancies, the idea of major sell off or panic selling is not something we are expecting.
With another oversized rate hike announced today, it’s pretty clear that the Bank of Canada does not yet have inflation under control and are continuing down the path of demand destruction and active wealth erosion. With the benchmark rate now hovering at 3.25% – a mere 0.25% away from the BoC’s target rate and inflation proving to be less transitory than first believed, a future recession and further rate hikes is almost all but guaranteed at this point. Remember, it typically takes a full 18 months before we see the results of a single rate hike – let alone the 4 oversized rate hikes we’ve seen in the last 6 months.
Historically, and over the last 30 years almost every time the BoC has risen rates by more than 1.5% we’ve seen a correction back down between 1.5% – 4.5%. So while rates continue their roller-coaster ride up, if history has anything to say about it, it’s highly probable that within a similar time frame we will see the BoC reverse course. If you’re a Buyer expecting to pick up a property from a grovelling Seller, they will be few and far between as many Sellers dig their heels in to combat raising rates while they wait for demand to return. And it will – with an aggressive immigration policy and inventory in Vancouver lower than it was this time last year, it’s clear we have a supply issue mounting and an outcome we’ve seen before when rates begin to fall.
Mychal Ferreira can be reached at:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/mychalferreira/
Dan Wurtele
dan@thevancouverlife.com
604.809.0834
Ryan Dash
ryan@thevancouverlife.com
778.898.0089
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